According to today's FiveThirtyEight.com roundup, McCain has a 6.24% chance of winning the election tomorrow.
What a McCain Win Looks Like:This was by far the most common McCain victory scenario, occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations this afternoon:
...this would be a boring ol' map. Obama wins everything that either Al Gore or John Kerry won. McCain wins everything else. Problem for McCain: this becomes a losing map if he loses Colorado.
...
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.
This is out of 10,000 scenario runs. I'm still trying to tamp my hopes down.
There's still time for Bush to bomb Iran, or maybe...Cleveland.
VOTE.
Comments (6)
Those maps are scary... Hopefully, it'll be enough to scare dems into staying in line tomorrow!
...but, Nate updated his poll numbers early this morning. McCain's chances went back down to 3.7%. Still no reason to cue the fat lady yet!
Posted by Toby![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.spitballpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
November 3, 2008 7:43 AM
Posted on November 3, 2008 07:43
I'll be watching the overseas betting sites tomorrow night too.
Posted by Patrick![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.spitballpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
November 3, 2008 9:07 AM
Posted on November 3, 2008 09:07
My guess is that Obama will win by a significantly larger margin than the polls are showing. My bet is that not only will the youth vote turn out, but that the polls significantly under-represented their number. I'll call the reason the cell-phone effect. The youth disproportionately have cell phones only (no land lines) and are hesitant to list their number since they have minute restrictions. Thus cell phones are under-represented in pollsters' phone banks. That in combination with youth support for Obama will have an impact only fully measurable on election day.
That's my prediction, at least. I haven't heard any of the 'professionals' talk about this, so let's see how far off base I am tomorrow.
See you at the polls (at least those from my precinct). I'll be working there all day tomorrow.
Posted by sidfaiwu![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.spitballpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
November 3, 2008 10:29 AM
Posted on November 3, 2008 10:29
Yeah, Sid. That's exactly what Nate Silver and Mark Blumenthal called it back in July.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_pew_data_on_cell_phones.php
And then in September:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/estimating-cellphone-effect-22-points.html
And again yesterday:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html
Nice try on taking ownership of that though.
Posted by Patrick![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.spitballpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
November 3, 2008 11:13 AM
Posted on November 3, 2008 11:13
Nah, it just goes to show that it's next to impossible to have an original idea. I never read anything about it before. Looks like there was no cell phone effect anyway. But thanks for assuming I'm dishonest before assuming I'm ignorant.
Posted by sidfaiwu![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.spitballpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
November 5, 2008 3:26 PM
Posted on November 5, 2008 15:26
Anytime.
Posted by Patrick![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.spitballpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
November 5, 2008 4:42 PM
Posted on November 5, 2008 16:42